It’s D-Day for England on Saturday as they bid to win their first Grand Slam since 2003. Only Ireland can stop them on day five and there is no doubt that on St. Patricks weekend, Declan Kidney’s men will want to round off the campaign with a win at the Aviva Stadium. Meanwhile, after a historic weekend in Rome, Italy will hope to hand Scotland the wooden spoon when they visit Murrayfield for the opening contest of the day. France and Wales will round up proceedings in Paris. The French, now out of contention, will want to use this clash to begin preparation for the World Cup, now only five months away, while the Welsh may still have an outside chance of claiming the championship if Ireland do them a big favour in Dublin.
Scotland Vs Italy
The Italians have made 6 changes to their side following the victory over France. While fresh legs are required after a massive effort last weekend, it’s also likely that Nick Mallet will look to use this game to test some fringe players with the New Zealand World Cup on the horizon. Leicester’s Martin Castrogiovanni is the only player in the front row to retain his place with Leonardo Ghiraldini and Salvatore Perguini returning to the team. Lock Quintin Geldenhuys also gets the nod after being relegated to the replacements bench against Le Bleus. The Scots meanwhile, have only made one change after their loss to England, which sees Geoff Cross introduced as tighthead prop. With home advantage, and on the back of an encouraging performance last weekend, they will fancy their chances to register a first win. This is sure to be a tight battle and a difficult one to call as the form book goes out the window. For me, the energy consuming triumph of last weekend is sure to take its toll on the Italians. Also, consider that Scotland are at home and will not want to claim the wooden spoon in front of a local crowd. One would have to favour the home side. Scotland HT/FT at even money (bet365), seems the safest way to go for me, along with Max Evans first try scorer, 8/1 (Boylesports/BetFred).
Ireland Vs England
For Ireland there are two changes in the back-line and also a positional switch after their defeat to Wales in Cadiff on Saturday. While Keith Earls moves to full-back in place of Luke Fitzgerald, Andrew Trimble comes into the team on the left wing for his first start in this year's Championship. Leinster’s Jonathan Sexton also finds himself back at out-half, with Ronan O'Gara moving to the replacements bench. Martin Johnson, meanwhile, has made one change to his England side for the Grand Slam decider, with Matt Banahan replacing captain, Mike Tindell, who is out due to an ankle injury he received in the victory over Scotland. England travel to Dublin as odds on favourites, despite Ireland’s dominance in the fixture over recent years. While Johnson’s men are on tremendous form, Ireland have come out on top in four of the last six meetings between the two. Stats also show that in recent meetings very little has separated the sides suggesting, though my heart says Ireland, England to win 1-5 points is a very appealing proposition. Furthermore, with Ireland starting their last two games very strongly against Scotland and Wales only to deteriorate as the game progressed, Ireland HT/England FT is a very worthy punt at 13/2 (PaddyPower). For first try scorer, Chris Ashton, who has been in top form this championship with three tries in four (Two of which were 1st tries) is priced at 15/2 (BetFred) but don’t count out Tommy Bowe who touched down twice in this tie last season at 2/1 anytime (PaddyPower).
France Vs Wales
For the curtain closer of this Championship, in the Welsh camp, George North will replace Shane Williams on the wing, due to the record try scorer carrying a knee injury. Prop Adam Jones returns after recovering from an elbow injury, replacing tight-head Craig Mitchell. France coach Marc Lievremont has made five changes for Saturday’s Six Nations finale with Marty and Damien Traille are in for Aurelien Rougerie and Yannick Jauzion, while Brive wing Alexis Palisson is preferred to Bayonne’s Yoann Huget, Clermont Auvergne prop Thomas Domingo takes over from Sylvain Marconnet and Biarritz number eight Imanol Harinordoquy is recalled. If Ireland beat England in Dublin it will give the Welsh huge motivation in this clash. They will still need top performance to close the point difference but I’m confident this won’t transpire. Les Bleu will be determined to redeem themselves in front of a home crowd after they were left rose cheeked in Rome last weekend. They have also dominated this fixture over recent years and unless the welsh produce something special, without key man Shane Williams, this will be the case once again. France to win 1-12 points, 6/4 (bet365). Vincent Clerc is worth a look for first try at 8/1 (BetFred/BlueSQ) just as he did last week against Italy.
My Tips
Ireland HT/England FT
Tommy Bowe to Score a Try in 80 min
Scotland HT/F
Vincent Clerc to Score First Try
Double on England to win 1-5 points and France to win by 1-12 points
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