Magners League Preview Round 21

It’s the penultimate round of the Magners League and with results from Thursday and Friday evening now known, all eyes turn to Saturday when third place Leinster travel to the Stadio Zaffanella to take on bottom team Aironi and table toppers Munster take on an Osprays who sit fifth in chase of a playoff place.

Aironi Rugby Vs Leinster

An under-strength Leinster overcame Aironi 21-16 back in February in what was the first meeting between the sides. Despite losing, the Italians became one of only four visiting teams to come away from the RDS with a league point this season. The last time an Irish side visited Aironi, they newcomers claimed their first Magners League win, overcoming Connacht in Round 18. But they will face a totally different task on Saturday. While Leinster were slow to get among the playoff positions at the beginning of the season, they have mounted a charge over passing weeks and after last weekends win against Ulster, where they also earned a bonus point, they put themselves well in contention for a home semi final berth. With Ulster leaping into second spot tonight with a win over Connacht, Brain O’Driscoll and Co will have to make sure they avoid any complacency. They have lost two of their last three visits to Italy. Like the bookies, I can’t see Leinster not winning this game. A win will give the Heineken Cup Semi Finalists a final round tie with second position in their own hands. Some bookmakers are pricing Leinster as short 1/9 but they can be best backed at 1/5 (Bet Fred). I really fancy Leinster to be winning HT/FT at 1/2 (Bet Fred). If your looking for a handicap, in my opinion Leinster (-7) is the way to go at 4/7. I’ve a sneaking feeling that if Leinster get a good start they may run a away with this so I think for value Brian O’Driscoll to score 2 or more tries at 7/1 (Paddy Power) is a good shout. I also like the look of Leinster win by 11-20 at 11/5 (Paddy Power).

Osprays Vs Munster

Munster travel to Wales knowing their home semi final spot is safe. In contrast, its do or die for Osprays who must win and hope others slip up if they are to achieve a place in the top 4. With no win in their last three games, the Welsh side have made six changes from their defeat to the Dragons last weekend. Despite their current bad form, Jonathan Humphrey’s men can take light that they have not lost at home to Irish opposition since September 2009. Furthermore, Osprays are unbeaten at the Liberty stadium against all opposition since October 2010. Visitors Munster welcome back the international contingent after being rested last weekend. Already qualified, Tony McGahan’s side will want to maintain their good recent form. Osprays are tough to beat at home but Munster will head into this tie full of confidence after winning four away games on the trot. It is sure to be a tight affair. One could argue that the Welsh have much more to play for but Munster’s desire and mentality in which they play every game as if it were their last makes it a tough contest to call. Osprays are the favourites with the bookmakers but I expect Munster to come very close to ending the home side’s unbeaten home run. Osprays are best priced for the win at 13/8 (Boyle Sports) while Munster are 7/4 (William Hill). I don’t usually mention the draw but don’t count it out at 20/1 (Paddy Power). I’d stay clear of handicap betting in this one but I like Doug Howlett for first try 12/1 (Sky Bet) and cover yourself with anytime try at 15/8 (Paddy Power).

My Tips

2pts Leinster HT/FT

2pt Leinster (-7)

1pt Brian O’Driscoll 2+

1pt Leinster by 11-20 Points

1pt Doug Howlett First Try

1pt Doug Howlett Anytime

0.5pt Munster and Osprays Draw

2011 Rugby Betting Stats

Staked = 27pts

Returned = 31.36pts

Profit/Loss = +4.36pts

• This article was published on www.fightingtips.co.uk.

• Follow all Rugby Tip Updates on Twitter. @CianMcCrohan.