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Wednesday 25 May 2011

BMW PGA Championship Preview

European golf’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, gets under way on Thursday and this year has attracted an incredibly strong field of pros. For the first time ever in a European Tour event, all four current major winners will take to the tee, which for us means multiple contenders to choose from and plenty of value from the bookmakers.

Luke Donald

Any regular readers of these articles will notice that Luke Donald is an ever present name in recent weeks. In the last four consecutive events I have tipped the Englishman and in the last four consecutive events he has provided profit. This week though, more than any other, I find reasons to pin the world number two to the top of my tip list. Dismiss that he is the bookmakers favourite and short odds at 15/2 (Coral), course form and recent form indicate Donald will be a contender this week. In his 7 appearances here, he has never missed a cut. He has had 3 Top 10s and they have all been in the last four years. Among these Top 10s were a 3rd place finish in 2009 and a 2nd place finish last year. Add these impressive course stats to his form this term that consist of 8 PGA events, 7 Top 10 finishes, 1 Win and 1 Runner Up finish, along with a 2nd place finish in last weeks World Match Play and it is impossible to ignore the 33 year old. As said above, Donald is best priced at a short 15/2 (Coral) and is a worthy each way bet. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luke win, I’d avoid backing him on the nose as he has failed to finish off the job in recent events, only to place. He is 4/5 (Tote Sport) for a Top 10 finish, which has consistently achieved over recent weeks. 

Ross Fisher

Ross Fisher has appeared here on five occasions, making the cut in all. In his two most recent outings here he has carded two Top 10 finishes. In 2009, he came close to claiming victory but finished Runner Up, one stroke shy of eventual winner Paul Casey. Along with his decent course form over recent years, Fisher also brings decent form from this year. He registered a Top 10 a few weeks back at the Dubai Desert Classic, a 15th place finish at Augusta and last week played well where he carded a 9th place finish at the World Match Play. The local man is best priced at 33/1 (Paddy Power) to win and is certainly worth an each way punt. I particularly see value in a Top 10 finish at 10./3 (Bet 365).

Anders Hansen

Anders Hansen has brilliant form on this course and is good value for a win this weekend. He has won this event twice, first in 2002 and again 2007. Along with his two triumphs, he has also had 4 other finishes of 21st and better. He brings good current form sitting 4th in the “Race to Dubai” with 6 Top 20 finishes in 9 appearances the year including 3 Top 10s in his last 6. Hansen is another good each way shout at a best price of 45/1 (William Hill) though I’d be much more drawn by a 2/1 (Paddy Power) for a Top 20 finish.

Richard Green

Richard Green, similar to Hansen, is another outsider who brings very impressive course form into this weekend. In the last decade, Green has never missed a cut and has carded 6 Top 20s with 3 Top 10s. While he has been in inconsistent form since winning the Portugal Masters in October, in recent weeks he has showed signs of improving. While he is 100/1 (Boyle Sports) for the win this week, again, similar to Hansen, I see value in the Top 20 finish at 4/1 (Paddy Power).


My Tips

1pt EW Luke Donald Win
0.5pt EW Ross Fisher Win
2pt Luke Donald Top 10
1pt Ross Fisher Top 10
1pt Anders Hansen Top 20
0.5pt Richard Green Top 20

Golf Stats 2011

Staked = 112.5pts
Returned = 119.5pts
Profit/Loss = +7pts 

  • This article was published at www.fightingtips.co.uk.
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