The penultimate stage of European rugby is upon us. Tonight, Stade Francais booked their place in the Challenge Cup Final and on Sunday, Northampton face Perpignan in Heineken Cup action. Therefore my focus turns to Saturday, with Munster taking on Harlequins and Leinster hosting Toulouse.
Leinster Vs Toulouse
Many will argue these are the top two teams in Europe at the moment and whoever comes out on top tomorrow will lift the title. The pair have won the last two Heineken Cup Championships which bills the tie in Dublin the game of the weekend. There is sure to be an air of déjà vu as the two also met last year at the semi final stage. Home advantage stood to the French on that occasion as they overcame their rivals 26-16. Despite Toulouse leading the head to head battle in the last eight contests 5-3, I predict the Irish Provence will live up to the favourites tag. While it is expected very little will separate the sides, this Leinster squad has improved massively in the past twelve months and with a home crowd behind them, Brian O’Driscoll and Co should just edge it. Leinster are 2/5 to reach the final and at 15/8 (Blue SQ) to win by 1-12 points are a good value. I also fancy Sean O’Brien Anytime Try at 7/2 (Blue SQ) and look out for Johnny Sexton 6/1 (Paddy Power) for Man of the Match.
Munster Vs Harlequins
Harlequins will have to battle the odds when they travel to Thomand Park to take on Munster in front of an expected 26,000 sell out crowd. The current Magners League table toppers come into this tie in good spirits after a last minute win over Osprays last weekend. They have also only suffered a single loss in European competition at Thomand in their last sixteen seasons. While it is an uphill battle, Quins themselves have reason to be confident. They come into the semi final as two time Challenge Cup winners; they dominated their pool and beat compatriots London Wasps in the quarter final. Furthermore they are in good recent form winning their last two Premiership games on the bounce. For me, there is only one winner in this contest. Given Munster’s overall form since crashing out of the Heineken Cup, it is very difficult to look beyond a home win. They are short odds at 1/6 but Munster HT/FT is profitable at 8/15 (Paddy Power). I also like Munster (-10) at 10/11 (Paddy Power) and Munster by 11-15 points 5/1 (Boyle Sports). Also consider Doug Howlett Anytime Try at 6/4 (Bet 365).
My Tips
2pt Leinster Reach Final
1pt Leinster 1-12 Point Win
1pt Sean O’Brien Anytime Try
1pt Johnny Sexton MOTM
2pt Munster HT/FT
1pt Munster (-10)
1pt Munster 11-15 Point Win
1pt Doug Howlett Anytime Try
2011 Rugby Betting Stats
Staked = 35.5pts
Returned = 40.7pts
Profit/Loss = +5.2pts
- This article was published on www.fightingtips.co.uk.
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