Magners League Final Preview

The Magners League Grand Final serves up a clash that Irish rugby fans would have been hoping for, as the countries top two provinces Leinster and Munster face off at Thomand Park. While Leinster will come into this game in good spirits after their emphatic Heineken Cup triumph last weekend, Munster will fancy their chances to claim some silverware after topping the Magners League stage and sealing home advantage.

Despite impressive league form this season, Munster crashed out of the Challenge Cup against Harlequins three weeks ago after being eliminated in the group stage of the Heineken Cup, the premier rugby competition that their opponents Leinster won last weekend. While they were officially crowned the best team in Europe on Saturday, will the new European Champions be able to overcome Munster in Limerick and will they recover from the emotional and physical hangover of last weekend?

Coach Joe Schmidt has made three changes to the line up that stunned Northampton Saints with an incredible second half performance last Saturday, most notable Fergus McFadden replacing the injured Gordon Darcy. In the Munster camp, veteran David Wallace wins his 200^th cap in a side that is unchanged from that which beat the Osprays in the semi final stage.

The teams have had some epic battles in recent years, none more so than their last clash here in the league stage of this competition in April, where a late penalty from Ronan O’Gara gave the home side a 24-23 point win. Leinster have only beat Munster once in Limerick since 1995, that victory coming last year when they won 16-15. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this tie will be extremely tight. There are several reasons to argue a Munster win (Home form and advantage, hunger for silverware, Leinster fatigue) and also a Leinster win (Confident after last weekend, best team in Europe, beat Munster here last season). I expect this to come down to the battle between Ronan O’Gara and Johnny Sexton. Two of the best kickers in the game at present, which ever of these two takes the game into his hands will have a huge say in the result. Even though Leinster will be determined to do the double which has only been achieved on four occasions, Munster have won all 12 home games in the Magners League this season and I feel this will be crucial come Saturday night.

In a game that is though to call I have focused on bets that come with value. I feel Munster (+5) will be a safe wager but simply provides no worth at 4/7. Therefore Danny Barnes who scored a brace against Osprays in the Semi final and maintains his place this weekend is 5/1 (William Hill) to score at Anytime and is worth a punt. Here back in April, Leinster held a 20-8 lead at half time only to be beaten 24-23. For a similar turn of events, Leinster HT/Munster FT is good value at 8/1 (Sporting Bet). Finally, I see good value in the Man of the Match betting and while it is likely that O’Gara or Sexton will claim this award Doug Howlett is always capable of running in for some big tries. Certainly a great chance and top value at 25/1 (Boyle Sports).

My Tips

1pt Danny Barnes Anytime

1pt Leinster HT/Munster FT

1pt Doug Howlett MOTM

2011 Rugby Stats

Staked = 59.5pts

Returned = 64.4pts

Profit/Loss = +4.9pts

• This article was published at www.fightingtips.co.uk.
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